Moist processes and their interaction with storm tracks

Atmospheric storm tracks are the regions on earth where midlatitude weather systems predominantly grow, evolve and decay. They are strongly associated with the well-known midlatitude jet streams and are responsible for the majority of extreme weather events away from the tropics. Their longer-term prediction and their behaviour in a future climate is one of the great challenges of atmospheric science. A key uncertainty is the role of latent heating (condensation and evaporation of water) in the setting of the intensity of the storm track, its geographical structure, and its evolution.

The dynamics of the storm track involves a complex, non-linear interplay between the jet stream, individual storms, different air masses, cloud fields, and the ocean surface. In this project we will work on capturing and understanding those interplays in terms of a dynamical system, a low-order, non-linear description of the most important physical interactions. As an example, earlier work on this topic has demonstrated that the interplay between the jet stream and storm intensity can be described as a non-linear oscillator, similar to a predator -- prey system known from mathematical biology!

In this project we will particularly focus on how latent heating in the storm track can be incorporated in such a dynamical systems approach to the storm track. The project involves novel data analysis tools, applied mathematics, and computer simulations of the storm track, and provides a broad avenue of possible research foci and developments.

The aim is to improve our understanding of the dynamics of the storm track and be able to make more confident predictions of their future behaviour.