Constitutional Politics and Anticipated Leadership Transition in Non-Democracies: Case Studies in Russia, Armenia and Belarus

Why do non-democratic regimes amend constitutions if constitutions in such regimes constitute mere window dressing and do not really constrain? This project seeks to test the hypothesis that periods of anticipated leadership transition (arising from the impending expiry of constitutional term limits, the occurrence of public unrest, or both these factors) are the primary explanation for constitutional amendments that appear to legally limit but in fact expand autocratic power in non-democratic regimes.

Existing research has sought to answer the question above in different ways. The unique feature of this project is that it will concretely define sub-categories of "anticipated transition" and then systematically apply a tripartite test to the main hypothesis by considering the following three stages of amendment: (a) cause; (b) process; and (c) outcome (see Figure 1 below). This test will be applied in three case studies from contemporary politics in non-democratic regimes: Putin's constitutional amendments in the Russian Federation in 2020; the amendments put by Sargsyan to the Armenian public in 2015; and amendments proposed by Lukashenka in Belarus in 2021. Each of these case studies exhibit anticipated leadership change arising from the impending expiry of constitutional term limits (Russia), the occurrence of public unrest (Belarus) or a combination of both (Armenia).

The research will help to systematise the response of international and domestic institutions to proposed reform in non-democratic regimes with the policy objective of aiding the constraint of autocracy through constitutional politics and (at the very least) resisting the augmentation of autocratic political power. The project will establish a "red flag" monitoring framework for identifying the potential use of constitutional amendment for ends that augment rather than constrain power. The research will use a blend of expertise in constitutional law and political science.