Developing quantitative predictive models of ignimbrite sheet architecture: implications for hazards at modern volcanoes

The architecture of the pyroclastic (and associated sedimentary) units deposited in large-volume eruptions is extremely complex. However, by employing a quantitative systems-based approach to recent to ancient large-volume ignimbrite sheets, we can identifyspatial and temporal trends and develop quantitative predictive models of distal "basin-scale" processes, which is unprecedented in these settings. This approach goes beyondmore traditional lithostratigraphic and mapping approaches by quantitatively evaluatingnumerous ignimbrites and effectively considering their interaction with accommodationspace and response to changing base level, rather than the flow dynamics andsedimentation of individual ignimbrite sheets. From these data we can then evaluatedownstream predictive trends in the deposits. These analogues can then be applied tounderstanding the hazards posed by volcanism and the response to such catastrophicevents at modern volcanoes.