Feasibility assessment of bioclimate vulnerability approaches for priority marine migratory species in the Caribbean and Pacific UK Overseas Territories

Project Aims
To assess the feasibility of applying bioclimate vulnerability assessment approaches to priority marine migratory species within the Caribbean UK Overseas Territories and the Pitcairn Islands. Building on previous work undertaken for JNCC, the study will evaluate the suitability of the proposed bioclimate vulnerability approach, consider relevant alternative approaches where appropriate, and determine whether sufficient evidence, data and expertise exist to support future implementation.
4. Project Background
Climate change is increasingly affecting marine migratory species through changes in sea temperature, ocean productivity, habitat availability, ocean circulation patterns, species interactions and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (IPCC, 2022; Martay et al., 2023). These pressures may alter species distributions, abundance, migration routes and ecological relationships, with potentially significant consequences for biodiversity, ecosystem services and economies across the Caribbean Overseas Territories (OTs) and the Pitcairn Islands (IPCC, 2022; Martay et al., 2023). Evidence from marine vertebrates indicates that climate-driven changes in ocean conditions can alter migration timing, migratory routes, species distributions and access to suitable feeding and breeding habitats through changes in environmental conditions and prey availability (Kuletz et al., 2024). However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding how priority marine migratory species are likely to respond to future climate conditions and what these changes may mean for conservation and management (Martay et al., 2023).
Previous JNCC work has reviewed available evidence on climate impacts affecting marine migratory species and identified a suite of priority species for further investigation. This work also highlighted the potential application of bioclimate vulnerability assessment approaches, which seek to combine information on species ecology, environmental...