Predicting Biological Carbon in the Ocean Globally (PRECOG)

Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from our society are rapidly warming our climate to currently 1.1 degrees C warmer than in preindustrial times. Global governments have pledged to reduce emissions to stabilise our warming climate at 1.5 degrees requiring us to reduce emissions of CO2 to a point where they no longer accumulate in the atmosphere: Net Zero. A crucial consideration in this effort are natural reservoirs of carbon on the Earth's surface such as permafrost and soils that store large amounts of carbon away from the atmosphere, but which are vulnerable to environmental change. The destabilisation of these reservoirs over time, releasing more CO2 into the atmosphere, presents a challenge to stabilising climate upon reaching Net Zero. Therefore, predicting how these natural carbon reservoirs will change in the future is a crucially important task.

The Biological Carbon Pump is one of these natural reservoirs of carbon in our Earth System. It stores carbon in the ocean by plankton (microscopic plants) taking up CO2 as they grow in the surface ocean. The sinking remains of these plankton carry the carbon into the deep ocean locking it away for hundreds to thousands of years. This carbon pool is equivalent in size to the anthropogenically-driven increase in atmospheric CO2 over the 20th century. The Biological Carbon Pump is widely expected to be sensitive to environmental change and could therefore release CO2 in the future. However, we have limited knowledge of what those changes might be and why because we don't have the necessary outputs from the state-of-the-art future projections by Earth System Models that underpin the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that inform social, economic and political decisions about Climate Change.

PREdicting biological Carbon in the Ocean Globally (PRECOG) will build a team of experts at the University of Liverpool to comprehensively explore the future of the Biological Carbon Pump using...