What does the future hold for European shelf seas ecosystems?

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) content has been increasing from the industrial revolution onwards, predominantly due to the combustion of fossil fuels. Strong impacts of CO2 have been observed in the marine domain. As the world ocean is a net sink of atmospheric CO2, seawater has mitigated the environmental impacts of the excess anthropogenic CO2. At the same time, the additional CO2 has increased ocean acidification and oxygen (DO) has reduced, resulting in detrimental impacts on the ocean. The increasing ocean temperature and carbon content has impacted marine biology, from simple photosynthesising plankton through the whole food chain. Such ecosystem changes have feedbacks onto the organic and inorganic composition of seawater, such as decreasing water clarity. This project will research the details of processes through which marine ecosystems on the European Shelf are impacted by atmospheric CO2. This project will improve our knowledge of past, contemporary and potential future variability. It will examine how identified changes, their drivers, and feedback mechanisms in turn affect the shelf seas' biogeochemistry, health, and biodiversity, with special emphasis on the organic and inorganic particle load that alters seawater clarity. Data sources are publicly available, including remotely sensed and reanalysis data. Existing data is utilized to identify ocean surface chlorophyll concentrations (a proxy for phytoplankton activity) and coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) to illustrate water clarity. Applying statistical modelling, we will identify hindcasts of the drivers of marine ecosystem variability. Additionally, we will utilise a high-resolution coastal biogeochemical model (ERSEM) to study the processes driving change. Finally, using all obtained results and understanding, we will use predictive modelling to identify potential shelf sea ecosystem conditions in decades to come.